Stratolaunch Gets a New Executive Director

Stratolaunch

Although NewSpace companies are already revolutionizing some market segments such as the the smallsat industry, progress in other areas, notably launch systems, has been much slower, with the clear exception of SpaceX.

Two companies which harbor long term crew capable orbital ambitions, Virgin Galactic and XCOR, are on the threshold of beginning suborbital passenger flights, and both will soon be offering smallsat launch services as well, where they will be joined by Swiss Space Systems. Based on a recent FAA approval, Blue Origin  seems to be making progress, but in reality has made more news recently concerning what it does not want SpaceX to do (occupy KSC Pad 39A) than what it is actually has in the works.

That leaves Paul Allen’s Stratolaunch project as the only other notable NewSpace entrant actually developing hardware in support of medium lift or greater crew capable systems.  As a previous story on the venture examines, the selection of a fully expendable solid fueled booster from Orbital Sciences would appear to seriously negate any opportunity for the Stratolaunch system to change the economics of space launch. If SpaceX is successful in achieving first stage recovery and re-use with the Falcon 9 at any point, the business case for Stratolaunch is going to get even more difficult.

That is not to say there will not be one at all. The ability being offered by the company, to conduct a more affordable space launch from altitude and to almost any orbit will be a powerful draw for certain customers,  but it is difficult to see as a game changer.  Still, it is progress, and in the long run the giant, twin hulled carrier aircraft might be expected to be launching a very different booster than the one it is going to use for its initial operations. Into that environment steps a new Executive Director,  Charles Beames.

 

 

More Legs for Falcon 9

All Dressed Up
Credit: Elon Musk

Elon Musk tweeted the latest image of the Falcon 9 being prepared for next month’s NASA CRS-3 mission.

SpaceX Prepares to Get a Leg Up on Everybody

The Shape of Things to Come
Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX founder Elon Musk has tweeted the above image of the Falcon 9 V1.1 currently being readied for the NASA Commercial Resupply 3 (CRS-3) mission scheduled for March 17th.  After some speculation due to scheduling, there is now no doubt that the next phase of the company’s efforts to develop first stage re-usability is about to begin.

As a second tweet from Musk confirmed, the upcoming flight will not include an attempt at landing on solid Earth.  Instead “F9 will continue to land in the ocean until we prove precision control from hypersonic to subsonic regimes.” Provided the company can once again successfully restart the first stage after stage separation and bring it back into the lower atmosphere, the 60 ft span legs should help to stabilize the spin which occurred on the first, and so far only attempt at a soft landing which took place on the booster’s maiden flight, and caused it to lose propellant flow and “flame out.”

As it was, the first stage still hit the water in a vertical position and under a semblance of control, but at a high speed. With numerous chances to get it right,  SpaceX has the luxury of taking a methodical approach to this most radical of achievements, and for the upcoming launch, successful deployment of the legs and a modest increase in control with corresponding reduction in final velocity would seem to constitute a major success.

SES Announces SpaceX Falcon (Heavy?) Launch for 2016

Thaicom-6
Credit: SpaceX

Update: As the original version of this story suggested, SES  did not book a Falcon Heavy.

Leading satellite Comsat operator SES announced today that it has awarded a construction contract for its SES-10 satellite to Airbus Defense and Space, previously known as Astrium.   Of greater interest however, is the fact that the 5,300 kg bird will be carried to orbit by a Falcon 9 in 2016.  Although the SES press announcement does not specifically state that the rocket will be a Falcon Heavy, Space News is reporting that the new super booster will  in fact perform the launch.  SpaceX has not yet released a statement, and perhaps unsurprisingly, the Airbus announcement does not address the subject either.  (Airbus builds the Ariane V) At 5,300 kg, the SES-10 spacecraft will exceed the Falcon 9’s official lift capacity to Geostationary Transfer Orbit by 450 kg, but it is worth recalling that in the press conference prior to the SES-8 mission on December 3rd, Elon Musk suggested there is considerable margin remaining in the Merlin 1-D engines powering the Falcon 9 V 1.1.  Assuming however, that the flight is to take place aboard the Falcon Heavy, it is highly significant for several reasons. Although Intelsat was the first customer to reserve a launch for the new booster, the specific flight has not been defined and is listed as “2017.”   SpaceX already has two launches on tap, an inaugural test flight which should at least see all components at Vandenberg by the end of this year, and separate flight to be conducted under the Air Force OSP-3 program in 2015.  If confirmed, the SES-10 launch would be the first actual commercial flight for the Falcon Heavy, cementing the historical role played by SES in bringing SpaceX to the world stage as a premier comsat launch provider. Also, if SpaceX and the Air Force follow a similar course in qualifying the Falcon Heavy for EELV launches as they have done with the Falcon 9 V1.1  in requiring 3 flights under a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA), then the SES announcement secures a critical third flight well before the next round of purchasing begins in the EELV program.  In short, the company could well be in a position to challenge ULA for every launch beginning in 2018. Finally, there is this.  If the Falcon Heavy successfully completes three flights prior to the next Presidential Inauguration in January 2017, it will have provided an invaluable piece of data should an incoming Administration choose to re-examine the assumptions underlying the nation’s very questionable plans for human space exploration.

Facing SpaceX, Arianespace Wants Taxpayer Help

Ariane V
Credit : Arianespace

Aviation Week is reporting that European launch company Arianespace  is preparing to ask the European Union for increased subsidies in the face of competition from SpaceX and difficulties with exchange rates.

“Given the weakness of the dollar and the situation with SpaceX, it is not out of the question that our effort to raise our competitiveness must be accompanied by increased government support for the exploitation of Ariane 5,”

–Stephane Israel,  Arianespace Chairman and CEO

The full story is here:

Compared to the blanket  subsidy which domestic competitor  United Launch Alliance (ULA) receives whether it launches anything or not,  averaging nearly $1 billion per year since the Falcon 9 first took flight,  the European subsidy is much smaller, and is used to offset any annual operating losses by Arianespace, which currently offers the Ariane V, Commercial Soyuz and Vega launch vehicles from French Guiana.

One point worth considering, SpaceX is fighting more than just the force of gravity and the rocket equation.  It is also battling a heavily subsidized competitor in the U.S.,  a quasi-governmental competitor in Arianespace, while competing directly against the governments of Russia and China.  Based on the results however, it would seem that subsidies no matter who provides them,  are poor a match for technology and a sound  business plan.

SpaceX Looks to Monday for Launch of Thaicom-6

A little over a month after launching the SES-8 satellite on its first ever geostationary transfer orbit  (GTO) mission, and its inaugural launch from Cape Canaveral, a second Falcon 9 V1.1 is poised for a liftoff on Monday. It will kick off what promises to be a year like none other for the Hawthorne, California based company, one which could bring lasting change to the launch industry.

The upcoming flight,  which according to industry website Nasaspaceflight.com has been moved from 5:57 p.m. EST Friday to “no earlier than” Monday,  January 6 due to an unspecified issue with the payload fairing,   will carry Thaicom 6, a 7,330 lb. communications satellite to an orbital slot at 78.5 degrees East longitude.  Built by Orbital Sciences Corporation and based on its GeoStar-2 platform,  Thaicom 6 hosts 18 C band transponders and 8 Ku-band transponders,   and will be operated by Thaicom Public Company Limited to provide C band services through one beam to Southeast Asia and much of the surrounding Pacific waters, and as well as to Africa from a second C-band beam.  Ku-band services will be provided to Southeast Asian mainland.

Next up for SpaceX after the Thaicom-6 mission is the CRS-3 mission for NASA, currently scheduled for February 22nd. Following the NASA launch, SpaceX will begin working down its considerable backlog in earnest, starting with the first of a number of scheduled flights to loft a new generation of Orbcomm satellites.  What may hold the most interest however, is two launches which will not be going anywhere close to orbit.  The first is a pad escape test for the new DragonRider spacecraft, and the second is an in-flight abort test of the same, to be conducted at the moment of maximum aerodynamic stress. Completing both tests prior to an anticipated late 2014 decision regarding the next and final phase of NASA’s Commercial Crew program is a high priority, and one which could provide the winning edge.

Also, on the manifest for 2014, which SpaceX defines as the year the booster arrives at the launch site, is the inaugural flight of the Falcon Heavy, scheduled to take place out of Vandenberg.

By the time its all said and done,  2014 may mark the year that what is going up may not be nearly as important as what is coming back down, namely an intact Falcon 9 first stage. With three NASA re-supply flights on the agenda for the New Year, SpaceX will have several opportunities to test its new technology, and just possibly turn the launch industry upside down, sending expectations soaring for the future of space launch.

More “InSight” into Launch Costs

Maven Launch
Credit : NASA

On December 19th,  NASA awarded the launch contract for the 2016 Mars Insight Mission to United Launch Alliance,  to be carried out aboard an Atlas V 401, for $160 million.  The award is interesting for a number of reasons.

In the first place, ULA does not like to reveal  its launch prices if there  any way to avoid doing so. Fortunately however,  NASA does include pricing when it announces launch awards,  providing useful data points which are very hard to come by  in determining just why EELV launches conducted under the Air Force program are so outrageously expensive, coming in at approximately  $420 million per launch in 2012.

At the $160 million figure for the most basic form of the Atlas, which has a 4 meter payload fairing and no strap-on boosts, and one upper stage RL-10 engine, hence  the “4-0-1” designation,  ULA has achieved a  cost reduction of roughly 10% (excluding inflation) compared to the similarly configured  MAVEN mission to Mars which was awarded in 2010 for $178 million and launch on November 18th.

Another recent award, for the 2016 launch of  NASA’s Osiris-REx mission to be conducted aboard an Atlas V 411;  equipped with the same 4 meter payload fairing and single RL-10 upper stage engine as a 401, but also including a single solid rocket strap-on booster to improve liftoff performance, came in at $183.5 million.

By comparison, the only NASA science mission award granted to SpaceX thus far, is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Jason-3 satellite,  for which NASA is the procuring agency.  The launch price for Jason-3, which was awarded in July 2012 and is scheduled to lift off in early 2015, is $82 million.

With each science mission being unique, and offering different challenges for payload integration,  it is not possible to draw an absolute price comparison between any two. Nevertheless, the enormous price spread between the Atlas V and Falcon 9 boosters gives an indication of what the agency could expect to gain in savings at whatever point the SpaceX booster becomes certified to launch NASA’s highest risk payloads.

To understand why this matters, take a look at this Wired article from November, which details how a budget strapped NASA Science Mission Directorate is debating whether to cancel the ongoing operations of either the Saturn Cassini mission ($60 million) or the Mars Curiosity mission ($50 million)  in order to live within its budget.  Notably both are substantially less than the difference between the two competing boosters. While there are certainly other places in the NASA budget where some might suggest looking for spare change under the sofa, the NLS awards are relevant precisely because it is one of the few areas where a mechanism is already in place to achieve savings.

That is not to second guess NASA’s Launch Services Program regarding the Insight or other recent awards, or its launch qualification criteria, but to emphasize that launch  costs matter, and the sooner the Falcon 9 reaches qualification, the better. It’s next opportunity will come with the launch of Thaicom-6, now scheduled for January 3rd.

Here is the NASA Press Release:

NASA Press Release

CONTRACT RELEASE C13-053
NASA Awards Launch Services Contract for InSight Mission

NASA has selected United Launch Services LLC of Centennial, Colo., to launch the Interior Exploration Using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport (InSight) mission to Mars.

InSight will launch in March 2016 aboard an Atlas V 401 rocket from Space Launch Complex 3E at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

The total cost for NASA to launch InSight is approximately $160 million, including spacecraft processing, payload integration, tracking, data and telemetry and other launch support requirements.

InSight is scheduled to land on Mars in September 2016 to begin a two-year science mission. InSight is a lander that will address one of the most fundamental issues of planetary and solar system science — understanding the processes that shaped the rocky planets of the inner solar system more than 4 billion years ago. The mission will investigate the interior structure and processes of Mars to understand better the evolution of rocky planets such as Earth. InSight will perform this science using two instrument packages.

NASA’s Launch Services Program at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida is responsible for management and oversight of the Atlas V launch services. NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., provides management for the InSight mission. United Launch Services, LLC operates as a subsidiary of United Launch Alliance.

Assuming the Legacy; NASA and SpaceX Negotiate for 39A

A View Into the Future
Falcon 9 on Re-entry
Credit : SpaceX

On Thursday, December 12^th, the GAO denied Blue Origin’s protest regarding NASA’s method of establishing its lease options for launch pad 39A at the Kennedy Space Center.  One day later, press sources indicated that the agency, as expected, has entered into negotiations with SpaceX regarding the terms of the lease.   Although nothing is certain until a specific deal is announced, it would be a surprise if the negotiations are anything but swift and conclusive. However, it should be noted that the denial of Blue Origin’s original protest regarding the two leasing alternatives does not preclude the company from filing a separate protest over the eventual award.  Hopefully, this will not turn out the case, as it would only serve to further delay a win/win scenario for NASA, the United States and SpaceX.

While much of the discussion regarding what SpaceX might eventually do with Pad 39A has focused on the Falcon Heavy, and the even larger boosters the company would like to build in the future, it is the more immediate use which perhaps should be of greatest interest, and almost certainly is to NASA.

Having made it clear that if granted a lease, his company intends to use 39A for US civil space missions, Elon Musk is handing NASA a potential  PR windfall which could relatively quickly begin to change the wholly inaccurate narrative of a space program in decline. (Excluding science missions, which are not just in decline, but in free fall)

Granted the lease,  presumably SpaceX would seek to begin conducting whatever remains of its now 10 flight manifest of Commercial Resupply Missions to ISS as soon as practically possible.  If the company also happens to be winner going in to the final phase of the Commercial Crew program, CCtCap, which is scheduled to be decided next fall, then those launches would clearly be conducted out of the historic facility as well.  In less than a year’s time then, the million plus visitors who go to the KSC Visitors Complex every year, will be greeted by the specter of not just a nation that was, but of a nation that is becoming, as work banners go up and modifications to Pad 39A to support DragonRider begin.  At whatever point the facility is ready to host the Falcon 9 V1.1 and CRS missions,  KSC Director Bob Cabana’s vision of a 21^st century spaceport will begin to become quite real, underscored by the regular launch pace of a 21^st century rocket.

But what of the seeming disconnect between the iconic Shuttle, with all its power and aesthetic appeal, and the somewhat non-descript, slender and gangly Falcon 9?  Surely many will continue to mourn for the Orbiters, which exuded a sense of “shipness” which the Falcon/Dragon never will.  Perhaps, but even here there is reason for optimism, and for seeing the transition from Shuttle to Falcon not as a step back, but as a step forward, a view already shared by many of those who follow the space industry closely.

It is probably safe to say that almost nobody involved with the original Shuttle development effort foresaw that the next NASA requisitioned booster to follow the Shuttle would be completely expendable, yet that this the case with the Space Launch System.  Even though the Congressionally mandated “monster rocket” may literally be comprised of Shuttle components, it is the Falcon 9 and that vehicle’s evolution towards full reusability which is the true heir to what many believed the Shuttle’s legacy would be.  It is appropriate therefore, that SpaceX’s efforts to pursue that capacity, which Musk has stated his company will attempt in the course of CRS launches, should take place from the same pad.

So it is not just that before too long, and after a three of four year gap, launch complex 39A will be back in business that is important.  It is not even that with the likely combination of follow-on CRS missions, Commercial Crew and a smattering of NASA science launches, the pad may soon be as busy at is ever has been that is the most significant.  The true gain for NASA, and for the nation, resides in the fact that 39A is set to host the next great experiment in achieving launch vehicle re-usability.  If SpaceX succeeds, and even now it is no sure thing, then the metrics begin to change and the space age truly begins. That is a legacy worthy of even the mighty Saturn V.

Seasons Greetings; Orbital Tells ULA See You In Court

The RD-180
Credit : PWR

According to a report in aerospace industry magazine Space News, a US district judge has denied a request by United Launch Alliance to dismiss the lawsuit levied against the monopoly launch provider by Orbital Sciences Corporation over access to the Russian built RD-180 first stage engine which powers the Atlas V rocket.   Unless the case is settled in pre-trial proceedings, it will likely go to trial sometime in late spring.

It is a case filled with ironies, not the least of which is that two US launch companies are actively fighting over a Russian built main engine, in a war of the commons brought on by the fact that the limited supply of Orbital’s original source of much older Russian NK-33 (AJ-26) engines is quickly running  out.

This is a problem somewhat of ULA’s own making. At various points throughout the RD-180 saga, which actually began with the Atlas III launch vehicle in 1996, Lockheed Martin argued that even though the engine is currently built in Russia,  it had secured the right to initiate US production at any point in time.  Such assurances generally tended to come out whenever influential members of Congress or various oversight bodies expressed concern that the United States military was entrusting the control over the supply of high power rocket engines to the same nation which the hyper expensive spy satellites they were launching was spying on.   Why sell the capitalists a rope when they are more than eager to buy rocket engines instead?

Lockheed Martin never seriously pursued U.S. production of the engine, a non-decision which otherwise might have substantially advanced the imperiled state of the US launch industrial base which the company cited in its demand for subsidies and the right to form join with Boeing and create the current defense launch monopoly ULA, for which the subsidies have continued unabated.

The basics of the suit outlined by Orbital Sciences are that the original 10 year exclusivity agreement negotiated between Lockheed Martin, Pratt and Whitney Rocketdyne and RD-Amross, the engine’s importer, expired in 2006, a time frame which was more than adequate to allow Lockheed Martin to recoup its investments in bringing the engine to the U.S.    It was only after Orbital approached RD-Amross about purchasing the engine for its Taurus II booster, (now Antares) in 2009, and entered into detailed discussions to do just that, that ULA suddenly re-asserted itself and unilaterally extended the agreement for another 10 years, with no other credible purpose than preventing Orbital from entering the market.  For its part, Orbital then offered to negotiate for purchase after 2016 when the second agreement ran out as well, only to be informed that it had now been extended to 2018.

Significantly, the RD-Amross import agreement apparently does not restrict the company from selling the RD-180 to all other parties, merely those which might compete with ULA.

Why does this all matter?

For anyone who has been following NASA’s science budgets over the last several years, it has been a very difficult time, with many missions delayed or deferred due to lack of funding.   Although it is by no means the only factor, NASA has explicitly cited the rising launch costs of the Atlas-V as a major issue in several recent decisions, including the agency’s withdrawal from the European Exo-Mars missions in 2016 and 2016.

As detailed in the lawsuit, ULA’s decision to cancel the Delta II rocket, and in effect force all medium sized NASA science payloads onto the intermediate class and more expensive Atlas V, all while seeking to prevent Orbital from entering the market with the lower priced Antares, is very detrimental to NASA’s imperiled science budgets. That this is all taking at the same time ULA is still receiving an outright subsidy through its launch capabilities contact only adds insult to injury.

And speaking of injury, Orbital, which wants a jury trial during the course of which the long list of anti-competitive practices outlined in the suit would be put on display, is claiming minimum damages of $515 million and asking for trebling under the Clayton act.  The further irony here is that ULA itself was formed in large part when Lockheed Martin used the threat of an anti-trust lawsuit against Boeing to agree to the monopoly creating merger in the first place. The suite was dropped only after Boeing consented.

For Orbital however, the real damages appear to stem from the fact that if the company cannot obtain new powerplants, it will not be able to compete in subsequent ISS commercial re-supply contracts after its current 8 flight manifest runs out, much less penetrate the defense launch market with a booster powered by 40 year old engines suffering from known corrosion issues. The further irony here, and what could be a major source of concern for ULA, is that more than any other factor, the Atlas-V’s much vaunted reliability record, which ULA consistently cites as a justification for high prices, is due to the RD-180. If that Orbital gains access to the engine, arguments against its entry in the defense launch market will be difficult to make, particularly when the second stage motor is provided by fellow defense contractor ATK.

Meanwhile SpaceX, which is coming off a historic first commercial launch to geostationary transfer orbit last week, is potentially only one launch away from meeting a key Air Force requirement before it is officially cleared to compete for a portion of upcoming missions in the Air Force’s Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle program.   That SpaceX is doing so with its own 100% US designed and built Merlin main engines, now in their fourth iteration is significant enough, but what also bears consideration is that the company is actively engaged in developing an entirely new line of engines, Raptor, a methane / lox staged combustion engine which offers many of the advanced features found in the RD-180 that Orbital and ULA are fighting over.

While a jury trial would be fascinating, with the Federal Trade Commission separately investigating ULA over the same issues, don’t be surprised if gets settled rather quickly.

Falcon 9 Lifts Off on Historic First Commercial Mission

Liftoff!
Credit SpaceX

Lifting off on time at 5:41 pm ET from Cape Canaveral’s SLC-40, the first SpaceX Falcon 9 booster carrying a commercial communications satellite has successfully placed its payload, the SES-8 comsat into geostationary transfer orbit.   Tonight’s launch was the culmination of a long and at times trying campaign which saw two previous attempts over the last 8 days scrubbed.

More significant than overcoming the scrubs however, was the fact that after encountering difficulty with a second stage engine re-start on the F9 V1.1’s initial launch out of Vandenberg in September, the debut East Coast flight for the booster went off apparently without a hitch, first placing the second stage and payload into a preliminary parking orbit, and then as it crossed the equator re-ignited to raise the orbit’s apogee to 80,000 kilometers.

Moments later, SpaceX confirmed successful payload separation,  a flash of welcome news which was soon buttressed by reports from SES that the company had acquired a signal from the satellite and it was in good health.  Although coverage of this flight will naturally focus on a “third time is the charm theme,”   there are two other significant numbers to consider as well. First, this marks the seventh successful flight of a Falcon 9 booster, five of the Block I configuration, and two of the radically updated Falcon 9 v1.1.

In accomplishing this feat, SpaceX has, in a manner, successfully flown completely out of the Aerospace Corporation’s 3/7 reliability rule which suggests that a new launch vehicle is most likely to fail sometime in the first three flights due to a design flaw, and in the first seven due to a manufacturing flaw. Purists will point out that since the original F9 was so thoroughly overhauled, the rule started over with launch number six and the maiden flight of the F9 V1.1  While perhaps technically accurate, the symbolism is quite important nonetheless.

The second major number to consider is “two,” which the minimal  number of consecutive successful flights required under the SpaceX/Air Force CRADA agreement which is a prerequisite for the company to be considered for launch services under the Air Force’s EELV program, currently the sole domain of monopoly launch provider and hyper expensive United Launch Alliance.  While the Air Force has not made a formal statement regarding the first SpaceX flight in September,  under a normal definition of “mission success” the delivery of the CASSIOPE satellite to the intended orbited counted, whereas the optional second stage re-fire test did not.  Taken together with tonight’s seemingly perfect launch, SpaceX appears to have crossed this vital threshold. With the Air Force set to negotiate further purchases under the EELV program with ULA, the timing could not be better, and may perhaps give pause for reflection.

In any event, preparations for the next launch, that of the Thaicom-6 satellite are already underway, with a likely launch date nominally scheduled for December 20th.